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Neighborhood Bully

Why the Israel Defense Forces hit Syria—and why they believe that Assad won’t hit back

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A cloud from an explosion rises near the Syrian village of Al’ Rafide at the border with Israel May 7, 2013. (Uriel Sinai/Getty Images)
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Yet the larger strategic assumptions that underlay the balance of power on Israel’s borders was altered drastically by that turmoil that some experts still insist on optimistically describing as the Arab Spring. Suddenly, as Israeli scholar Asher Susser had put it so accurately, Israel stopped being afraid of Arab strength and began to be worried about Arab weakness. In Syria, what had started as a local popular revolt in the southern city of Dara’a grew pretty quickly into a terrible civil war, the worst conflict to hit an Arab country since the outcome of the American invasion of Iraq in 2003.

From the Israeli perspective, Syria became a huge problem once the Assad regime began to experience difficulties in controlling the distant provinces—specifically the provinces near the Israeli border. Once the border area became an enclave for extremist, al-Qaida-affiliated groups, Israelis faced a new threat: A failed-state, or a non-state, along the border was a much harder foe to handle than a deterred police state, no matter how brutally its dictator treated his subjects. Whom do you deter when there is no longer an identifiable actor on the other side of the border?

Very quietly, and unofficially, Israeli leaders wish success to both sides. They pay lip service to condemning the regime’s horrors and express their sympathy for the plight of the Syrian people under Assad but do not go out of their way to help the opposition. Israel assumes that if indeed the opposition wins, it would quickly be dominated by jihadist groups, which will soon set their weapons against the Jewish settlements in the Golan Heights. On the other hand, if the fighting continues, so will the deterioration of the Assad forces’ military capabilities. No army would be able to initiate a war against a neighboring country after more than two years of a self-destructive murderous battle against its own people—producing what is almost a win-win situation for Israel.

Yet Israel has its red lines, just like everybody else these days. President Barack Obama defined, rather vaguely, the American red line: The United States would intervene if it has proof that the Assad regime had used chemical weapons. Israel’s red line is very different. It will act, as Israeli leaders have constantly threatened, if important weapons systems are either transferred deliberately from Syria to Hezbollah or fall into the hands of extremist jihadist groups on the rebels’ side. Some Israelis have described the effect of these weapons as “tie-breakers” in Lebanon. This is clearly false, since there is no “tie” between Israel and Hezbollah. But Israel is explicitly nervous about the transfer of chemical weapons, of advanced anti-aircraft systems (such as the Russian-made SA-17 missiles, bombed in January near Damascus, presumably on their way to Lebanon), of coast-to-sea missiles (like the Russian-made Yahont), and of accurate surface to-surface missiles (such as the Iranian-made Fateh-110, bombed twice in the beginning of May).

Suddenly, Israel stopped being afraid of Arab strength and began to be worried about Arab weakness.

The internal chaos in Syria probably helps the Israelis to collect further data on the military situation there, without being noticed. On the other hand, one would assume that the Syrian army’s withdrawal from many parts of the country and the fact it had to deploy its units under pressure have made following them a much more complicated mission. Evidently, the decision to strike three times means that Israel had enough information about the weapon shipments to strike.

But there is probably something else at work here: Generals—and air force and intelligence specifically—tend to emphasize the need for taking immediate advantage of tactical opportunities. So far, Syria has not retaliated for the attacks. However, on Tuesday, May 7, President Assad threatened Israel with “resistance at the Golan border,” and a government newspaper announced that “next time will be different.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would certainly think hard before he approves another air strike, even if the IDF’s brass claims that it is absolutely necessary.

Why has Assad refrained from military action until now? Without admitting any responsibility for the strikes, a senior Israeli defense official explained to me that the government believes the Syrian regime does not have enough space for maneuvering. “If they do act, they will involve us directly in their civil war—a result both of us would like to avoid.” This would mean the destruction of the Syrian air force, Assad’s most effective weapon against the rebels. “I know Assad says he is going to react severely next time, but how many times have you said this to your kids and ended up doing nothing?” remarked the official.

But Assad is not the only actor on his side: Israel should also consider the possibility of either an Iranian or Lebanese response. Hezbollah is deeply involved in the civil war in Syria, and it is assumed that the Shiite organization has sent more than 2,000 of its fighters to help Assad’s loyalists. Iranian Revolutionary Guard units are also present in Syria. (The commander of their “El-Quds” force in Lebanon was mysteriously killed on his way to Syria two months ago.) Israel has used this to strengthen its case against Teheran—blaming the Iranians for spreading unrest across the region. Wouldn’t the Iranians and Hezbollah eventually blame Israel—however falsely—for their mounting casualties in Syria? The Israelis believe that Syria’s allies are too busy helping Assad fight for his survival and wouldn’t spend valuable time on minor friction with the IDF. “Until now, our presumed involvement had been minimal,” one military source said. “The Iranians are otherwise occupied.”

More and more, the civil war in Syria is seen in a broader, regional context, and the American hesitance over the right course of action is looked upon in Jerusalem as a disturbing precedent regarding the country’s long-term strategic challenge, the Iranian nuclear project. Will Iran and Hezbollah decide to retaliate for the latest strikes, defending Syrian honor? Israeli intelligence officials assume the chances are slim. But we should remember that they have discovered in the past that some of their assumptions were much too optimistic for this region.

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gemel says:

Why the title “Neighborhood Bully”? Does this expose a political bias or agenda or what?

ParisParamus says:

Wonder if Obama will get another Peace–I mean War–Prize for the coming Syria intervention.

Harel writes for Ha’aretz, the Israel bashing newspaper, which is why there is the obnoxious headline for the article.

It may be a reference to Bob Dylan’s song, “Neighborhood Bully” – http://www.bobdylan.com/us/songs/neighborhood-bully.

Beatrix17 says:

The title is offensive, but this is one of the most interesting articles that Tablet has had recently. I would rather read about bullies than blintzes. But Tablet has become less interesting to me since they started chopping off reader’s comments.

It seems only days ago that Israel was concerned about an existential threat involving Iran having and using a nuclear weapon. Now we see Israel using nuclear-like weapons of mass destruction in a pre-emptive, illegal attack on Syria.

Why is it that the leadership of Israel cannot be trusted to keep to the principles and actions that they demand of others?

Jacob Arnon says:

Is the title meant to be ironic? If so it is lost on most readers, though with te Assad regime killing over 80 thousand Syrians, it is hard not to see Syria as a deadly bully.

Fonape says:

What are you talking about? What “nuclear like weapons” did Israel use? If you are referring to the shape of the smoke in the picture, how do you know that isn’t the product of the Iranian missiles that were the target of the strike? By the way, what is a nuclear like weapon, one that produces a big explosion with out nuclear radiation – in other words a conventional weapon? Try to refrain from inventing loaded words.

payne100 says:

Where do you get the 80 thousand figure? UN sources are now revealing evidence that the rebels (paid mercenaries) are using Sarin gas on the civilian population. Could be that the 80 thousand are all Syrian mercenary casualties.

rightcoaster says:

A useless neologism: “nuclear-like weapons of mass destruction”. Your grammar, spelling, and (except for the neologism) diction are good — but you come across as an ignoramus.

I think most of these comments have missed the obvious reason for IDF (alleged) air strikes. These missiles are the surface to air variety (SAMS) Israel can’t afford to have SAMS in their back yard. Launching an air strike on Iran’s nukes would be to dangerous to their own pilots, aircraft. Also Bible prophesy declares Damascus will be turned to rubble, we might see that soon.

Natan79 says:

Yes it does. Amos Harel is from Ha’aretz, the Israeli mouthpiece of Hamas and Al-Qaeda.

payne100 says:

All of Israel’s neighbors have Israel’s nuclear weapons in their backyard but they don’t possess nuclear weapons themselves. By your line of reasoning, Israel’ neighbors would have an even more legitimate reason to bomb Israel.

That’s correct, Rebecca. But it is interesting to see how many readers at a Jewish publication immediately read the title as an anti-Israeli slur, and responded by attacking Ha’aretz’s widely respected military correspondent, Amos Harel.

Ran says:

“Nuclear-like weapons of mass destruction”?

Are you high or what?

B.T.W., the cloud seen in the picture resulted from an explosion during the fighting between the Syrian rebels and Assad’s regime, right next to the Israeli border, as written below it.

I would expect a *little* more from an Israel-hater…

oaklandj says:

Don’t forget hating puppies and stomping on daisies. Any other childish insults you want to lob at a newspaper that doesn’t deliver the propaganda you like?

Beatrix17 says:

Would you bomb someone with nuclear weapons? Your neighbor’s weapons are a concern only if you think they plan to use them on you.

payne100 says:

Personally I wouldn’t bomb anyone. Israel’s Arab and Persian neighbors have reason for concern with Israel’s nuclear weapons since Israel has at times bombed most of them.

Beatrix17 says:

Israel has never used nuclear weapons on anyone. No one knows if she even has them. As long as people think she has them she doesn’t need them. And she’s never started a war, except a preemptive one, but she always fights back. If her neighbors don’t want war with Israel, then they should stop attacking her.

payne100 says:

If Israel didn’t have nuclear weapons, why would they prohibit international nuclear weapons inspectors from inspecting their nuclear facilities? And why wouldn’t they join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty? Israel keeps company with North Korea, Pakistan, India as the only nuclear powers to abstain from joining.

If Israel didn’t have nuclear weapons, why would they imprison Mordecai Vanunu for 18 years for exposing their nuclear weapons secret to the rest of the world?

Never started a war except a preemptive one? In the 1967 war, Israel attacked Egypt, Syria and the United States. Lucky for Israel that LBJ had a Jewish mistress at the time.

Beatrix17 says:

Actually, like most people, I think Israel probably has nuclear weapons, but like most people I can’t prove it. (Nor can I see how Israel or Iran could use nuclear weapons in their cramped quarters without the fallout destroying their own countries).

Vanunu, a mere technician, could prove that Israel was working on weapons, but couldn’t prove how successful they were. He’s been treated terribly by Israel. Perhaps they’re angry for being foolish enough to trust him. They should have known better than to put a traitor in such a sensitive position.

Of course Israel engaged in a pre-emptive strike in the 6 Day War. Even you can’t believe that tiny Israel decided to take on all the other important countries in the Mideast. She had no choice. She not only won the war, but two of those countries eventually agreed to peace treaties.

Ian Thal says:

It’s the title of a Bob Dylan song, which, despite the fact that it never explicitly uses the words “Israel” or “Jews”, is generally considered to be a calling-out of anti-zionists as anti-Semites and hypocrites.

Dylan is generally vague about his politics, but this song at least hints that he’s probably a zionist.

payne100 says:

You fail to mention Israel’s attack on the USS Liberty. That was an act of war against the United States and a cowardly one at that. The Liberty which had no real defensive weapons was attacked by Israeli planes and Torpedo boats using cannon fire, napalm, rockets and torpedoes. Israel was attempting to sink the ship and kill everyone aboard. Only the brave actions of the skipper and crew prevented the ship from going down.
34 US sailors and intelligence personnel were killed. 174 were injured.

Abdul Hameed says:

What do you mean by a pre-emptive attack? So if any country thinks that Israel might attack them, then they can rightfully launch a pre-emptive against the enemy?

payne100 says:

Only Israel and the U.S. are allowed preemptive attacks. They own and control the mainstream media so they are able to make it seem all right to break international laws.

Beatrix17 says:

That was such an obvious, tragic mistake, like America’s shooting down the Iranian passenger plane. This will surprise you, but Israel is not trying to start a war with America.

Beatrix17 says:

Any nation with a brain in its head is “allowed” pre-emptive strikes. However, most nations with brains in their heads will not try one against Israel or America.

payne100 says:

There are more than a few books written by naval personnel who survived the holocaust on that ship. If you read any of them, you will know that it wasn’t a mistake.

If you are open-minded enough, go here to learn a little history you don’t know. http://www.gtr5.com/

payne100 says:

Nazi Germany preemptively attacked their neighbors. Israel and the U.S. learned from the masters, yes?

Morrissey says:

Syria is engaged in a civil war. There is criminality on both sides, but especially on the part of the Al Qaeda and jihadist rebel forces, backed (yet again) by the United States and its aggressive Israeli proxy/stooge.

The deadly bully in the region, without any doubt, is the criminal Israeli regime. Just ask the people suffering here….

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/11/20121120212739934900.html

Morrissey says:

You’re not clever enough, or powerful enough, to get away with making stupid statements like that.

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Neighborhood Bully

Why the Israel Defense Forces hit Syria—and why they believe that Assad won’t hit back

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