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How Plato and Aristotle Help Us Understand the Tyranny of Bashar al-Assad

Today’s upheaval in the Arab world has antecedents in past revolutions. So, why are the lessons lost on U.S. policymakers?

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A walnut tree stripped of its branches stands in the rubble of the Kalat al-Numan citadel, originally built during the Roman era some 2,000 years ago, after allegedly being bombed several times by the Syrian air force on Nov. 18, 2012, in Maaret Al-Numan. (John Cantlie/AFP/Getty Images)
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For the last two years, American and European leaders have confidently predicted that President Bashar al-Assad of Syria would soon be gone. Yet not only does he still control what remains of the Syrian state apparatus, he also just kicked the rebels out of the key town of al-Qusayr. Desertions from the Syrian military, initially thought to presage the regime’s collapse, have slowed markedly; in recent months, Assad’s strength has clearly increased, thanks to an influx of Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon and large-scale military resupply efforts from Iran and Russia.

Why is this so? To answer that question, we have to embrace the unpleasant reality that tyrannies can be quite effective in resisting democratization and crushing dissent and are frequently supported by wide swaths of the population. Unlike Egypt, Iran, and Turkey, countries with ancient pre-Islamic civilizations, Syria was cobbled together out of various cantonments and statelets left over from the Ottoman empire. The Alawites, a minority religious sect suspected of covert Christian and Druze tendencies, see no percentage in living under a Sunni-majority regime which would likely slaughter them to gain revenge for Assad’s frequent massacres of civilians. Same for the sizable Christian minority, which is the backbone of Syria’s economy.

Nor were Assad’s war tactics, as horrific as they were, hard to predict. He inherited from his father, Hafez al-Assad, one of the Arab world’s most feared and repressive tyrannies. The Syrian Baathist regime had one of the worst human-rights abuse records in the world. The use of torture was widespread, along with arbitrary detention, gang-rape of prisoners (including children), and disappearances. The power of the dreaded Syrian Mukhabarat, or security service, was omnipresent.

Due to its adherence to the decrepit Baathist ideology of modernization from above, the Syrian economy remained a basket-case for decades, with a gross domestic product roughly that of West Virginia. Meddling in the internal politics of Lebanon, including assassinating anti-Syrian opposition leader Rafik Hariri, was among the regime’s few notable “achievements.” Open political debate was unknown, and the legislature was a rubber-stamp, 90 percent of whose members support Assad. When the civil unrest of the Arab Spring, having already led to the toppling of dictatorships in Egypt and Algeria, finally reached Syria, it was hardly surprising that decades of pent-up hatred for the Assads and their Alawite sect burst into a bloody and brutal civil war.

No decent person can fail to be appalled by the Assad regime’s brutality. But the simple fact is that the West lives every day with regimes, like North Korea, that leave Syria’s worst excesses in the shade. Indeed, beginning with the street demonstrations in Egypt, it seemed that American and European leaders veered overnight from uncritical support of Baathist dictators to demanding their immediate ousters, with no guarantee that they would not be followed by something no better if not much worse (as in Egypt, where violence against the Copts, threats to break the peace treaty with Israel, and the erosion of women’s rights are rampant).

Yet throughout all these awful yet entirely predictable developments, both the left and the neo-conservative right in America have persisted in believing that a new golden age of Arab liberal democracy—or something like it—was right around the corner. Whether it be Charles Krauthammer claiming that “everyone” in the Arab Spring “is a convert to George W. Bush’s freedom agenda” or President Barack Obama arguing that increased American aid will “roll back the tide of hopelessness that gives rise to hate,” there is now an odd unity tying the two groups in what might be termed the Republican-Democratic National Foreign Policy Party. On its left, so to speak, are Sen. John McCain, Sen. Lindsey Graham, and neo-conservatives who see in the Arab Spring another opportunity for neo-Wilsonian interventionism, while on the right is the Obama Administration, which has agreed with many of the aims—bringing down Muammar Qaddafi, Hosni Mubarak, and Assad—but disagrees about the means, preferring indirect assistance in cooperation with Europe. Both sides seem eager to ignore the fact that liberal democracy with its full panoply of civil liberties and tolerance took several centuries to mature in the West.

Indeed, what passes for foreign-policy debate in official Washington reminds us that alleged ideological differences between left and right on America’s international role are often trumped by an underlying and unspoken expectation that progress is a natural and necessary evolution in human affairs. Whenever people claiming to want freedom and democracy spontaneously emerge—as in the Arab Spring—they are to be greeted with joy rather than foreboding. But in most of history and throughout most of the world, the demand for “freedom” has meant primarily the freedom to replace one arbitrary and oppressive form of government with another.

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What I term “garden variety” tyrannies—men like the Assads, who exploit an entire country as if it were their private property so as to enrich themselves, their families, and cronies—have been around since the tyrants of ancient Greece. Sometimes (think Franco) their venality is dressed up as the defense of religious and national tradition. In the case of the Baath movement, the personal ambition of “the young colonels” was originally at the service of imitating the Soviet model of modernization from above, overcoming traditional religious and ethnic loyalties without succumbing to democratic self-government. The Arab Spring was the explosion of the contradiction between the original Baath secular model—which had long since degenerated into mere tyrannical greed and oppression with very little economic evolution, much less personal liberty—and the jihadist vision of a restored Islamic theocracy or even world caliphate.

The assumption that we should find “pro-democratic” groups among the rebels, as opposed to die-hard jihadists, is premised upon the belief that terrorist acts are born of despair over lack of economic opportunity and the peaceful benefits of a pluralist secular society. The tremendous influence of this idea goes back to the beginning of modernity in the Age of Reason and the Enlightenment. Thinkers such as Hobbes and Voltaire argued that tyrannical ambition, violence, military strife, and civil war were caused by denying human beings their basic rights to pursue their own self-interest. Once they enjoyed the fruits of security and well-being, the sources of aggression and “non-negotiable” conflict, such as religious differences, would melt way, leaving us free, as Voltaire encouraged, to cultivate our garden.

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Poupic says:

This would have been a great article when “The Arab Spring” started. I knew then no real democracy would happen in any part of the Arab world. This is a world where succession if not from father to son is always bloody. That is the way it is and always will be up to a long time in the future. The strong man rule with the help of the mosque. They do not trust each other but need the other’s agreement to continue ruling the masses. I knew that all along. The professor writes after the fact here. It would be interesting to read what he wrote when the so called “Arab Spring” started.

ott198089 says:

Although a lot of people succumbed to the wishful thinking and the pious nonsense spouted by the mainstream media, there were plenty of rational people (like Dr. Daniel Pipes) who understood what the “Arab Spring” was all about from the beginning.

The Western-style Democracy isn’t just about regular and clean elections, it’s first of all about the rule of law, respect for minorities, religious tolerance, freedom of speech, and respect for individual rights.

It so happened that all of these lofty ideas are an oxymoron in the Muslim culture in general and the Arab one in particular, and it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that empowering masses in the Muslim world means only one thing – mob rule.

That’s why only 50-60 years ago, before the Muslim masses were able to make their voices heard, there was much more religious, ethnic, and political diversity in the Muslim world. I remember the group pictures of the students in the Cairo University – none of the females in the 1950s wore headscarves and practically all of them had miniskirts, but the one taken recently had most of them wearing hijabs, and none of them had miniskirts.

I also remember that the Shah’s Iran had political parties ranging from the secular nationalist right to the extreme left. The Trotskyites competed with pro-Moscow Communists, and they all fought against the ultranationalists. Khomeini and his followers took care of all of them.

Poupic says:

OK, you and I know the evidence. So why are so few of us and so many wishful thinkers screwing up the minds of people with their wishful thinking? One country was almost there, Tunisia. Today Tunisia is well on it’s way to be Sharia ruled as are Egypt and Libya. McCain with all his good intentions thinks he can help the insurgents while differentiating between the good guys and the Islamists. It is tragic that people who zero knowledge of the Middle east‘s history, culture, religions are the one’s who direct what has to be done. Barack Hussein just nominated a lover of PA terror who despises Israel to be the US UN Ambassador. Until the next President seat in the White House Barack Hussein is going to create more evil while claiming to advance Democracy and goodwill.

mbermangorvine says:

The author lost me with his assertion that the Assad regime has basically evolved into a nonideological, traditionalist dictatorship. The Syrian regime’s alliance with Iran and funneling of high-grade weapons from the regime in Tehran to Hezbollah makes it a dangerously destabilizing force internationally as well as a horrifyingly murderous gang of thugs at home. On the other hand, Newell is probably right that we can’t expect the Syrian “rebels” to produce anything better in terms of human rights or international peace.

ott198089 says:

I suspect that the main reason for it is that the generation of the 60′s is now in charge of the governments, media, judiciary, and academia in the West.

The people who grew up hating Western Judeo-Christian civilization, everything it stands for, and obsessed over the real and imaginary Western sins are incapable of standing up to the Islamic barbarians the way previous generations of Western leaders were able to.

I’m afraid that in the end, the fascists will come to power, and it’ll be the end of the glorious Western civilization.

Poupic says:

Glorious western civilization? Most do not know their own history, geography. They do not know the names of the politicians representing them yet they all have an opinion about everything in the Middle east, Islam, Arabs, Israel… After all everybody has the right to have an opinion! So they think the Arabs and Islam are just like they are and only a few and far between are terrorists. Oy! We are done for because this applies to Kerry now running all over the place saying there is no time. At the same time Barack Hussein named as Ambassador to the UN a rabid anti- Semite that describes the PLO as suffering from the big bad Israel. Oy! Both of those Yahoo know nothing are in charge!

PhillipNagle says:

This is purely a religious war with the rebels trying to achieve Sunni hegemeny in the area, supported by Sunni Islamist regimes in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey and the Sunni international terrorist arm al-Qaeda. The Syrian regime is supported by the Shi’ite regimes in Iran and Iraq, the Shi’ite militia from Lebanon, Hezbollah, and Russsia. Regardless of who wins, it will end with a bloodbath with a tyranical regime in charge. The only logical course for the US is stay out.

mishamb says:

This is an interesting article, and the writer’s point that run-of-the-mill dictators are less dangerous than ideological fanatics is valid. But I’m not sure that is what we are looking at in Syria under Bashar Al-Assad. Certainly his father was excellent at using more powerful nations to bolster Syria’s standing and influence while maintaining Syria’s independence. But Bashar is not his father and he hasn’t been nearly as good as his father at playing groups and countries off one another.

Bashar’s main goal certainly is to keep his family in power and to protect the Alawites and their allied minorities in Syria. But he has had to depend more on Iran than his father ever would have. For instance it was reported three or four years back the Hezbollah had set up a scud base in Syria. If this was true, it meant Iran and not Assad, would decide if and when Syria went to war since Hezbollah is a wholly-owned Iranian subsidiary. Assad the Elder would never have allowed another country that kind of power.

So under Bashar, the Iranian extremist and the Hezbollah extremist have a level of power and influence they hadn’t under his father. This, in a way, makes Basher not an ideological extremist exactly but also not a run-of the-mill dictator either. And even if you don’t think this Iran-Hezbollah axis had undue influence before the Syrian civil war, it certainly does now. Bashar is totally beholden to them for his survival at this point. He owes them and has much less autonomy to act. He may act for reasons he sees as utilitarian not ideological, but he now serves ideological masters.

I don’t mean this as a way to show the United States should follow this or that policy in Syria, but to show that the situation is much more complex than this article makes it.

Habbgun says:

Very easy for the “realists” to say we were right. Problem is the line between terrorist and supposedly non-terrorist state is pretty shadowy. You can argue the difference between Mubarak and Iran but it was the Saudis our “allies” who were funding Al-Qaeda and most of these states have supported them and have provided the fighters. Lurking below these states are the Islamicists….lurking over everyone in these states are lousy economies dependent on oil if they are lucky to have it or utterly hopeless without it. These governments are inherently unstable and have to mollify their populaces. They do it with anti-western terror. Bush admin’s point was the price of keeping the status quo was too high. How many 9/11′s can we absorb. Do we wait for chemical, biological or nuclear attacks.

You can ignore, fight an all out war or try to modernize and democratize which did work with Japan and Germany although those states needed to rebuild and not modernize. Bush chose the most humane option. It failed.

If you think brutal, canny and lying dictators playing Islamicists and the West against each other is a great policy. Go ahead and believe it.

We failed with a humane policy. No shame in that. Want to be truly tough and real? Try bombing M&M into the ground and force Islam to deal with the fact that A may not exist given that A could not prevent the bombing. Any modern country could do that. Care to try it? Or do you think finding some sort of stability is the answer?

I would love for someone from the “realist” position explain to me how propping up these regimes will prevent another 9/11 or everyday Islamic terror. It won’t. So what is the point? If it is to say we have to live every day with terror because that is realistic go ahead and say it but I bet you won’t be as popular as you are when you fudge that point.

herbcaen says:

Both radical Shia and Sunni Islam pose threats to the US and cannot compromise with Western society. Thus, which is more dangerous? While radical Sunnis brought us 9/11, they were ultimately successful because our FBI was (and still is asleep). I fear radical Shia Islam more. Why, because it is based in Iran, a country with a history of intelligent and disciplined people who can creatively work towards a bad goal. Kind of like comparing Germany to Poland. Both hated Jews, Poland probably more so, but German discipline allowed the Holocaust to take place. Thus, bring down Iran first and let the Sunnis self destruct

Velocodger says:

Another lesson of history might be found in early America. The modern view is that settlers came to America seeking freedom. While this may be true in the strictest sense, the fact is many settlers came as members of religious sects seeking the “freedom” to oppress their fellow sect members. Laws punishing foul language, fornication, ect. were more easily imposed in America than in England, where there were limits on the sect’s authority. I see parallels to the motivation of many Mideast rebels, who seek the “freedom” to impose their religious sects’ tenets on their fellow citizens.

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How Plato and Aristotle Help Us Understand the Tyranny of Bashar al-Assad

Today’s upheaval in the Arab world has antecedents in past revolutions. So, why are the lessons lost on U.S. policymakers?