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The Next Lebanon War

A Lebanon-Israel conflict is a matter of when, not if, and the United States has an interest in the outcome

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Israeli forces prepare to cross into Lebanon during the Second Lebanon War in August 2006. (Shaul Schwarz/Getty Images)
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In Washington the assumption is that it’s only a matter of time before Israel and Hezbollah will be at war again. But what’s worse is that, according to policymakers and analysts I’ve spoken to, the United States is sharply opposed to Israel finishing the work it failed to get done in its two previous Lebanon wars (1982-2000; 2006). This isn’t just because the Obama Administration wants to keep things cool in the region to allow for relatively peaceful U.S. withdrawals from Iraq and Afghanistan and to keep terrorists off the streets of U.S. cities. The more disturbing reason is that Israel is no longer trusted to do the job right.

Once regarded as a U.S. aircraft carrier in the Eastern Mediterranean, Israel is now perceived, correctly or not, as a strategic liability. Before the flotilla incident last month—an event that, yet again, earned Israel the opprobrium of the international community—there was the Gaza war in the winter of 2008 to 2009, an inconclusive battle that ended with Hamas still in control and with the Israelis ultimately having to face the Goldstone Report. In July 2006 there was the Second Lebanon War, popularly understood as a Hezbollah victory—or as its Secretary General, Hassan Nasrallah, describes it, a divine victory. But perhaps Israel’s largest strategic blunder was its 2000 withdrawal from Lebanon. Even while Defense Minister Ehud Barak continues to defend the decision he made as prime minister, the facts are clear: Israel abandoned its ally in the South Lebanese Army, made its citizens vulnerable to Hezbollah rockets, and effectively rewarded terrorism as a negotiating tool. Now Hezbollah has 40,000 missiles and rockets.

It is peculiar that most U.S. policymakers and bureaucrats do not believe that the United States has an interest in pushing back against an Iranian asset in the Eastern Mediterranean and going after a terrorist group that operates inside U.S. borders. But the fact is that if Israel has become a strategic liability, U.S. policymakers—from the Clinton Administration through the Bush and Obama Administrations—have helped make it one, forcing Jerusalem to accommodate terrorists and the states that support them, thereby putting our own interests and citizens under fire. Now, instead of asking how we can ensure that our ally wins its next war with the Shia militia, the question in Washington’s halls of power, its think tanks, and dining rooms is: How do we deter Israel from going to war against Hezbollah?

It seems they can’t. Perhaps the Syrians will cross another red line by sending advanced weapons across the border with Lebanon, maybe war will be in response to an Israeli attack on Hezbollah’s sponsor in Tehran, or maybe the casus belli will be another mishap in the wake of another freedom flotilla or a Hezbollah assassination of an Israel official. One likely excuse for Hezbollah’s next war against Israel is the discovery of sizable natural gas deposits off of Israel’s coast. Alongside the Tamar and Dalit fields, the recently discovered Leviathan field will make Israel a net exporter of energy. Since the fields are adjacent to Lebanon’s territorial waters, the Lebanese are already clamoring that the Israelis have stolen their resources.

“If Lebanon needed to pile up hundreds, thousands of rockets to protect our sovereignty, dignity, and hydraulic resources, then the need to protect our hydrocarbon assets motivates us to enhance the Resistance’s capacities,” says Sayyed Hashem Safieddine, head of Hezbollah’s executive council and a cousin to Secretary General Nasrallah. The idea that the United States should get Israel to relinquish its claims on the Shebaa Farms, an insignificant piece of land in the Golan Heights that the Shia militia uses as a cause to justify maintaining tens of thousands of rockets and other offensive weapons, is now off the table for the good. The natural gas fields are Shebaa on steroids, and no one can afford to fool themselves that Hezbollah will ever willingly disarm.

Walid Jumblatt, the leader of Lebanon’s Druze clan, understands both the logic of Hezbollah’s eternal resistance and the reluctance of Washington and Europe to confront it, which is why the former hero of Lebanon’s pro-democracy movement has jumped sides. Jumblatt is certain that there will be a renewal of hostilities. He assumes that as Israel pushes into Lebanon and drives the resistance northward, his fiefdom in the Shouf Mountains will be flooded with Hezbollah fighters. And so the man whose Druze community fought the Party of God to a standstill in May 2008 while the rest of the world looked on and did nothing now says: “The arms of the Resistance are crucial for defending Lebanon’s offshore petroleum resources.”

Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri is also convinced that war with Israel is inevitable. His patrons in Saudi Arabia convinced him to make his peace with Damascus, because Riyadh calculates that an Israeli attack on Iran and Hezbollah will reshuffle the deck at which time Hariri can put his house in order. The Israelis say that they will hold the Lebanese government responsible for Hezbollah’s actions and make the whole country pay, but they might as well blame Harry Potter’s magic wand, for the source of the problem is in Damascus and Tehran. Still, it is foolish for Hariri to side openly with the resistance, as he has, even as he imagines his governing partners in Hezbollah do not recognize that he is going from one Western capital to another asking the Europeans and Americans to tell the Israelis to target Hezbollah and leave the rest of Lebanon alone.

Hariri has staked the future of his country on the clarifying violence of war, a conflict waged on his behalf by an enemy state against a domestic enemy that has taken over Lebanon. But what if there is no war? After all, Hezbollah doesn’t want war right now; it can’t afford another conflict like 2006. To be sure, Nasrallah’s management of what he calls the divine victory counts as one of the most brilliant campaigns in the history of information warfare. A man bunkered for the rest of his life has convinced the world that he won while his wardens lost.

But of course, Lebanon’s Shia are like all other men—they bleed and die and know when they have been decimated. For instance, during Israel’s war with Gaza in the winter of 2008 to 2009, when a small quiver of rockets was fired against Israel from southern Lebanon, Shia left their homes in droves fearing Israeli retaliation. The Lebanese government was incapable of processing all the passport requests from southerners who wanted to leave the country and remove the targets from their heads for good. In spite of the quasi-hysterical pitch of Hezbollah’s rhetoric over the last few months, they will be careful about starting a war that may turn the Shia community of the south into permanent refugees.

As for Hezbollah’s sponsor in Tehran, the question is how the Islamic Republic conceives of its nuclear program. If a bomb is the regime’s grand prize and the historical patrimony of the Persian nation, then Tehran has no choice but to unleash Hezbollah in retaliation should the Israelis, or the United States, strike. However, if the Iranians conceive of the bomb as just one asset among others in the regime’s arsenal, then it may pause before spending Hezbollah, another expensive investment, at a moment when Israel’s response is likely to be particularly fierce.

Regardless of how Israel’s enemies game it out, sooner rather than later, Jerusalem is going to have to make war on Hezbollah, because the United States is withdrawing from the region, Israel is getting weaker, and its enemies are getting stronger. The only way to ratify or challenge a new balance of forces in the region is through war. Someone will miscalculate or decide that war serves their interests or both.

In the next round, says Nasrallah, Israeli ships will be targeted. In the next round, says Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, the war will be widened and Syrian president Bashar al-Assad and his “family will lose power.” As the rhetoric becomes more expansive, strategic aims will shift. For instance, if Israeli ground forces cannot destroy the long-range missiles that Hezbollah has hidden under schools and hospitals in order to deter pre-emptive Israeli air strikes for fear of civilian casualties and Hezbollah fires on Israeli cities, then the rules will change.

Maybe Saad Hariri is right—that the cancer of Hezbollah can be excised and Lebanon will survive the operation. Or perhaps Lebanon at this point is no longer a country but merely a human shield, captive to Hezbollah and its own inability to imagine the limits of its mortality. In this regard, the Lebanese responses to the Gaza incident last month have been especially poignant. The organizer of the women’s “Freedom Flotilla,” scheduled to leave from the northern Lebanese port of Tripoli this week, is the wife of one of the Lebanese generals allegedly responsible for the murder of Saad’s father, Rafik Hariri, believed to have been killed on the orders of Bashar al-Assad. In other words, the inhabitants of an entity whose public officials murder each other for the benefit of foreign powers have censured a state that protects its citizens by controlling its borders.

Natural gas deposits have also been found in Lebanese territorial waters, which while not as large as Israel’s would go a long way to building up the finances of one of the world’s most indebted states. And yet for all the talent that the Lebanese have for doing business even under the worst of circumstances, those fields will never be developed. The equipment alone is too costly, the investment too dear to hazard on a state run by a terror organization working at the behest of two foreign powers.

In the end, this is why Israel will have to go to war once again. The issue is not merely in rolling back Iranian influence and disabling a terrorist organization whose tentacles reach U.S. shores. Rather, it is a conflict pitting two worldviews against each other, a conflict that has nothing to do with any putative war between the West and Islam, but with two differing forms of social and political organization. On one hand, there is a state with its attendant institutions that embody several thousand years’ worth of the principles and ideals that led to political modernity. On the other hand, there is the primordial chaos of tribal competition throughout a region where violence and obscurantism rule, where “national interest” is a euphemism for the bloody work that security services employ against their countrymen to keep tyrants in power. The United States has an interest in that war coming out right.

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Strelnikov says:

This article reads like all those pro-Iraq War II op-eds in 2002 with a dash of that “Clash of Civilizations” dross at the end. Israel has never done well in Lebanon; why lose again? Another Lebanon war may get rid of Ba’thist Syria (if that state is dragged into the conflict), but the damage it will do to a hobbled world economy (oil prices shooting through the roof) will plunge us into another real Depression and not this knucklebusting “Great Recession.” Mr. Smith also doesn’t see that this future war may destabilize Egypt or the Gulf states, plunge the IDF into a quagmire fight like Afganistan, or allow Israel to tactically nuke some town and thus finally prove that Israel is a nuclear state. Neither the US nor Israel will win anything in a Lebanese war, but countries like Iran, Russia, and China might do well after the fracas ends.

Alain says:

Woah, That is probably the dummest analysis i’ve read this month about the problems in the middle east; Dick, is that you?

this is the dumbest and silliest article I’ve read about the Lebanese-Israeli conflict..first of all Syria is now innocent from killing Rafik Hariri.second Hezbollah’s power has increased 10 times since 2006 on both sides men and weapon and even existence in the south..you have wrong ideas my friend Hezbollah is still present in the south.And for your information Hezbollah never hides rockets and weapons in civil buildings,neither weapons nor missiles were found under bombed buildings in 2006.the southern area is full of valleys they could use.in addition the IDF cannot fight street warfare like Hezbollah…and because 14 march party are pro-west it doesn’t make them democratic…not every pro-USA is democratic…so please stop putting silly articles..put meaningful ones.thank you a Christian guy from Lebanon

Shirley says:

Hey, Alain, before you describe something as the “dummest analysis” you’ve read this month perhaps you should learn how to spell: dumbest, not dummest. Why don’t you enlighten us as to why you think it’s so “dum?”

Joseph Somsel says:

I found Mr. Smith’s analysis very cogent. Of course, I’ve just finished his book “Strong Horse” so understand more of the background.

I do wonder if Israel is really getting weaker? Their enemies are getting stronger but Israel’s work on missile defense surely must improve their situation. I would also imagine that Bibi also sees Israeli military preparedness as essential.

It is good news that Israel is talking of taking any future war to Damascus. The Syrian regime needs to directly face the consequences of their troublemaking.

BTW, “liquefied natural gas” (LNG) is a processed product, gas cooled to cyrogenic temperatures to turn it into a liquid for transport and storage. LNG does NOT exist in nature on this planet. The newly discovered natural gas fields may be drilled into and the resultant gas converted into LNG but it doesn’t come out of the ground that way.

Donald says:

Just to correct the record on the hydrocarbon resources, the Levantine Basin is believed to contain 125 trillion cu ft of gas and 1.5-1.7 billion bbl oil (mid range estimate). This gas is gas, not liquid. You link is to an older LNG project that Israel proposed to import gas in liquid form in 2007.

jgreene says:

Except for the LNG “gaffe” this is a very reasonable and cogent article explaining Israelis CHOICES in the near future.

It is time that the Syrians be made to pay for their terroristic actions against Israel. How do you spell “decimation”? I sincerely hope Israel wastes Hezbollah this time and if Hamas enters the war from Gaza, the IDF will be given carte blance to destroy them, their infrastructure and psychotic leadership and IslamoFascist followers.

PD Quig says:

Israel has not been backed up against the wall since 1973. I would not bet against them, even with the current jerk in the White House having abandoned them.

We all remember the 1967 joke about the Arab army platoon that was pinned down by a single Israeli soldier. The Arab commander keeps sending ever larger groups to dispatch the Israeli, but they never return. Finally, a dying Arab soldier drags himself back into camp and warns that it’s a trick: “There are TWO Israeli soldiers out there!”

Let’s see what happens when they really have to go all in again. Democratic societies are harder to stir to all out war, but when they reach the tipping point…look out.

Mike says:

While our president may or may not be a crypto-muslim converso with an anti-jew perspective, this particular American and many more are four square behind Israel and whatever it has to do to protect itself from these barbarians. Let Israel do what it must. The world will always condemn it no matter what it does, so there is no point quavering over decisions based on global opinion. Git er dun.

Matthew Fishbane says:

Thank you to Joseph Somsel and Donald for catching our mistaken use of the terms “Liquefied Natural Gas.” LNG is natural gas that has been processed for transport. The discoveries mentioned in the article should have referred to natural gas. The article has been modified to reflect this.

Ken Besig Israel says:

While I respect Lee Smith and have read his book Strong Horse, I believe that he is mistaken in this case. First of all, the threat of war in the Middle East is taken for granted by most of us who live here, the reality of war is extremely rare despite the apparent tension between the Arabs and Israel. The problem of Israeli finishing off her enemies has never been due to the Americans, it has always been the result of Israeli political uncertainty and a desire on the part of the Israeli military to do as little damage to our enemies as possible. This rather strange concern for our enemies welfare however has only been in place since the mid 1980′s with the growth of the Israeli Left. The picture is very different these days and there is a real possibility that if Hizballa does launch rocket or missile attacks on Northern and Central Israel that the Israeli response on Hizballa, Lebanon, and Syria will be so devastating that none of those players will even want to think about another war with Israel for decades. Hizballa, Lebanon, Syria, and even Iran know this quite well.

As usual the proponents of Middle Eastern fantasy have nothing to say to the cold air a true realist like Mr. Smith brings to the situation, so they resort to vituperation.

Richard from Houston says:

I have seen the seismic data–Lebanon has waaay more offshore structures than Israel does.
Leviathan has not yet been “discovered.” It will be drilled beginning later on this year. It may or may not contain hydrocarbons, although it looks very promising.
The Levantine Basin has tremendous promise and the main beneficiary, ex politics, would be Lebanon–but Lebanon will need to provide a legal framework that will allow the wells and infrastructure to be drilled and developed. The Tamar discovery well, as an example, cost over $140 million — that’s for a single well.

Alain says:

Dearest “Shirley” _Grammar snob_ First of all i think it might have escaped your attention that there is such a thing as a “typo”.
Secondly, you just HAD to point out that obvious mistake without thinking that maybe that guy can speak ten different languages of which English is the tenth language and he is speaking to us ( meaning you ) in our own language, you see not everyone is American.
Thirdly “Shirley” the mistakes in this article are so numerous it would take me forever to point out every single one, from the complete and shameful yet very usual deference Americans exhibit towards Israel to the skewed way of representing the Lebanese politics; From calling Israel a nation that only “protects” its people to making Lebanon into a terror haven ( which by the way has managed to double its economy in 7 years and is set to achieve a growth of 8% for the fifth year in a row ) and so on.
The world is sick and tired of having to tell Americans over and over about there shameful acts only to be countered by “Shirleys”.
The good news “Shirley” is that America is hemorrhaging power and Americans are too dumb to realist their influence has already begun to deflate, so i hope, pray in fact for the Jewish media to inveigle you into another war which will most certainly bring about a most deserved end to the Shirley of the world.
Was that satisfactory??????????????

Mike says:

Guys,i liked the Article,it does make a sence and i want to beleive it.
I am lebanese and there is unfinished business from the israeli whom they need to finish what they start.sick and tired of israeli,every damn summer come with a war,obviously we also sick and tired of Hozballah,a 100% terrorist organisation who never faught for the sake of Lebanon,they faught for there idiology.
By the way,Jerusalem is the symbol of the Christianity and between cousins(muslim & jews) can fight as much as u want.
Peace

yesjb says:

“Woah, That is probably the dummest analysis i’ve read this month about the problems in the middle east; Dick, is that you?”

WOW! How inciteful. Of course a know-it-all like you would never try to use cogent arguments and facts to support their contentions. Thats for les petits gens, n’est-ce pas?
Try being rational au lieu de faire l’imbecile!
Should be easy for someone who speaks 10 languages!

Alain says:

“Should be easy for someone who speaks 10 languages!” oh look, the Shirley twin has made an appearance, i guess it has escaped your attention that i wrote “maybe”; I don’t claim to speak ten languages.

If by “les petits gens” you mean tes amis les Americain imbeciles qui sont totallement fasciner par les juifs leur superieurs et qui malgré tous, supportent l’”Israel”; then i guess you’re right since they didnt take much convincing or “cogent arguments” into offering their children on the altar of the Iraq war for her sake !!!Oh no!!points d’exclamations!!!!!!!

I made my point clear when i said I hope America gets entangled in another war on behalf of a foreign country, wait a sec, Bush, is that you?? guess not, since that lutin barely spoke English AHAHA

h.m. brzeznski says:

Regime change is all well and good in theory, but the West doesn’t exactly have a sterling record of actually achieving the replacement of an undesirable regime with a more desirable one, does it? I’d say it’s likelier than not that whatever replaces Assad’s regime in Syria – if Israel really does decide to go that route – will be more jihadi-friendly than what we have at present. The same goes for Lebanon.

Alain must be French. First he feels the need to tell us he speaks ten languages, then his head nearly explodes at the prospect of America getting some sort of comeuppance.

Well, here’s to the good times now. For everyone’s sake, and not just America’s, I hope Alain is right and that our attitude towards Iran is misplaced.

david e says:

Wow! So this is the suto-intellectual drivel the young orthodox Jew reads to get fired up about hate and war. We –pure, democratic and caring. They — barbaric, simple, cowardly. Seems similar to the dehumanization done in Germany in the late 1930′s of a certain group. It made the killing all the easier.

You know what this is really all about: power, control, domination, fear, greed and profits.

Israel only has one tool, a hammer, and every problem looks like a nail. There likely will be another war as a result of the fact the neighborhood bully has not yet been punched squarely in the nose. Will this war solve the problems or make them worse? If you believe that war is the answer…you are a sick puppy.

yesjb says:

“Alain must be French”
More likely Lebanese which would explain a lot but “French” is possible. Les banlieues de Paris sont plein de petits gens comme lui.
And BTW Alain its not “tes amis” its “vos amis”. I’m not your friend and if your aim, as I suspect, is to insult me alors, j’ai la peau épaisse mais toi, borné (LOL)

This is yet another example of armchair generalship. It assumes that Israel is playing some sort of table game like “Risk”. It isn’t.

Hezbollah was shooting rockets at Israeli civilians in northern Israel. The IDF forced them to stop.

Hamas was shooting rockets at Israeli civilian in southern Israel. The IDF forced them to stop.

In both cases the IDF accomplished what it set out to do, to defend Israel. That is what it is there for, to defend Israel, not to play geopolitical games for the satisfaction of pundits.

Alan Finkelstein says:

I agree with Jack Kessler’s comments. The goal of Israel’s defense initiatives was to stop the launching of rockets at its citizens. It cannot hope to eradicate terrorist groups if it has to placate the U.S. and world at large by withdrawing each time it acts to defend itself.

Noticeably absent from the article were the lessons our policy makers seem to have forgotten when we underestimated terrorists (i.e., the Hezbollah suicide bombing in Beirut that killed more than 240 U.S. marines, the attack on the U.S.S. Cole in Yemen, car bombings outside our embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, and 9-11). The question should not be “How do we deter Israel from going to war against Hezbollah?” but rather, “How do we prevent terrorists from inflicting catastrophic attacks on our closest allies?”.

Harry Grunsten says:

Iran is a great chess player as it uses it’s pawns Lebanon, the Gaza, Turkey and Syria to be the “so called” agressors against tiny Israel, as it re-arms them with very sophisticated missiles and munitions that only Iranian advisors (by the thousands) can operate as they surround Israel to destroy her by proxy. Would that be checkmate as Iran convinces the UN that it is not the culprit that the pawns were the destructive force. Would democratic nations be so easily indoctrinated by Iran as to do nothing to protect the only democracy in the Middle-East? At the moment Israel can only force a temporary stalemate; but, if Iran goes further to cause a checkmate as it pledges to do,Israel will have only one option, if the democratic nations do not help stop the conflaguration that Iran promises.That option will be the use of her own atomic missiles from her subs that patrol near Iran.

EdwinS says:

David E – not ‘suto-intellectual’ but rather ‘pseudo-intellectual’.
Go back to school…

Cris says:

For Israel, the road to Beirut goes through Damascus.

Carl says:

The antisemitic pro Nazi Alain says: “…First of all i think it might have escaped your attention that there is such a thing as a “typo”.”

It was no typo hateful dumbass.

“….you just HAD to point out that obvious mistake without thinking that maybe that guy can speak ten different languages of which English is the tenth language….”

Ten languages and you can think straight and I’d bet you are speak them all as badly as you do English.

“Thirdly….. the mistakes in this article are so numerous it would take me forever to point out every single one,….”

Yea, we are all dumb, Lebanese are wonderful, yet they have never produced anything of importance since their independence. The only thing they are good at is killing each.

“From calling Israel a nation that only “protects” its people to making Lebanon into a terror haven ( which by the way has managed to double its economy in 7 years and is set to achieve a growth of 8% for the fifth year in a row ) and so on.”

This doesn’t even make sense on any level.

“The world is sick and tired of having to tell Americans over and over about there shameful acts only to be countered by “Shirleys”.”

The only thing that one can sure about this nonsensical sentence is his bad grammar and his inability to tell the difference between “their” and “there.” (As to the “world” “alain” mean the Arab world and their lackeys in Europe.)

“The good news “Shirley” is that America is hemorrhaging power and Americans are too dumb to realist their influence has already begun to deflate,”

Wishful thinking, Alain; you also meant realize and not realist, but never mind.

Carl says:

“ so i hope, pray in fact for the Jewish media to inveigle you into another war which will most certainly bring about a most deserved end to the Shirley of the world.”

It’s obvious that you would love to all the Jews killed, which makes you just another common Lebanese genocidist.

“Was that satisfactory??????????????”

Was it good for you, wanker?

David Wehbe says:

Jews, always talking about wars…never hear them talk about peace. Who will they attack next..Iran? ..Syria?..Lebanon? The US has given them so much weapons they are compelled to use them before they rust. Try talking peace for a change, you just might get there.

Fortunately Israel is less likely to indulge in unjustified, indiscriminate, murderous and grossly disproportionate military assault upon peaceful Lebanon now that Hezbollah have a rudimentary but effective deterrent. Obama trying to rein in Israel is a good thing, too.

Israel, incidentally, are nobody’s ally. They look out for themselves.

Empress Trudy says:

The tragic reality is that Israel can no longer strike at a real threat before it kills many Israelis. It simply won’t be tolerated. Israel is required to suffer mass casualties before it lobs even one rocket back. Anything else would be condemned as a war crime. By many of you on leftist front particularly. I accept that. I hope you do too and don’t suddenly ‘discover’ that sacrificing women and babies in the name of politely murmuring how peaceful and open handed the Arabs are is maybe not a great bargain. This in an of itself is the reason you won’t see WMD used against Israel. At least not right away. Hezbollah has slowly inexorably ratcheted up the level of punishment and death Israel is demanded to suffer. And after the next war with Hezbollah it will go higher still, until of course chemical and nuclear weapons are used against the Jews. Then and only then will Israel be permitted, legally speaking and by the media and lawfare ‘experts’ in the west, to strike back.

So again, I hope you understand that. Maybe a million casualties would appease the left and the west and the UN. I think though it will take more, much more, perhaps all of them.

Sleep tight, appeasers.

I think the best solution to the chronic Middle East problem is “PEACE”. Easier said than done is a very true statement here. However, if we (Lebanese, Israelis, Syrians, & yes AMERICANS) do not try then shame on us all. We let the maniacs and lunatics in Tel Aviv and southern Beirut destroy the world around them while we point fingers left and right! I am a young Lebanese Shia male who rejects war, corruption, economic under development, or unemployment; I am sure that a normal young Israeli male also wishes for the same. For God’s sake, the Arab Muslims & Jews came from two brothers, Isaac & Ishmael. Shame on those that plant the seeds of war & instigate violence among people. Ultimately, if young, educated people on both sides of the Lebanese-Israeli border don’t rise up and say ENOUGH, the status quo (murder & slaughter on both sides) will remain to be the norm in the region.

The public in Israel & Lebanon must give up the mentality of primitive retaliation and vengeance. I say to the Lebanese & Israelis, let’s come together and forgo the dark past. They talk about the lack of will..B.S we can create the will. It is so much harder to launch a war than it is to have a dialog; even if no tangible results will come out. It still is easier and more productive than war.

the mistakes in this article are so numerous it would take me forever to point out every single one

Israel would have had to take more than 1,000 casualties to wipe out Hezbollah in 2006; that’s why they agreed to a cease fire. In 2008,. Israel had no intention of taking even 100 casualties or of occupying Gaza again. In Lebanon, Israel achieved a beefed-up UN presence and the removal of Hezbollah from the border area. In Gaza, Israel achieved a great reduction in missle attacks.

Another Israeli Hasbara crap. The Zionist leaders are known for their short memories. The love to forget how a bunch of ill-equipped Hizbullah fighters succeeded in blooding the noses of the so-called “fourth most powerful army of world” in 2000 and 2006.

Interestingly, even CENTCOM has come to the conclusion that Israeli forces are incapable of destroying Hizbullah or Hamas – and these Islamic resistance groups have to be dismantled internally.

http://rehmat2.wordpress.com/2010/07/06/how-to-destroy-hizbullah-and-hamas/

bruce says:

All the patrons are mentioned except Israel’s.
The US TAXPAYER @ 10 Million in aid to Israel per day.
That we know of.
Israel’s last Lebanon 2006 war saw the pentagon rush 220 million worth of aviation fuel from Europren stores to the Israeli air force.
US taxpayer got the bill.
Israel also requested and received millions in precision munitions.
Yes,the Ole’ US TAXPAYER footed the bill on that as well!!.

When someone else pays your bills you are free to start all the wars you
want.
According to the Christian Science Monitor,the cost of Israel to the American TAXpayer has been over $1.6 TRILLION since 1973.http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/1209/p16s01-wmgn.html

M.S.S says:

So Israel is going to destroy an organization through occupation that was formed while under occupation? I mean yea the Israelis will destroy much of Hezbollah’s capacity. But the fighting will continue as long as Jewish soldiers are on Lebanese soil. And as soon as they withdraw Iran and Syria will have trucks waiting to be brought in to Lebanon. So Israel is faced with 2 options. Fight a continuous war and occupation much like the West Bank and Gaza. Or pull out and repeat the situation in 2000. Seems like a lose/lose to me.

you cant blame other countries when a nation buy n sell its own dignity and loyalty.. some Lebanese are loyal to Iran first, others to Syria, some to the USA, others to France.. but none to Lebanon.. i mean if you want to solve an issue you can solve it internally no need to involve all the countries in the world.. of course when there is a will tho..

second don’t blame Israel or America or France or England.. or any other country.. for the problems you have.. you allowed it.. a strong country with a strong unity no matter what other countries try to mess with it .. the country stay united..

unfortunately.. Lebanese people are not on the same page.. and I’m sure they don’t love their country.. taking into consideration every party puts its best interest before the interest of Lebanon as a country…

i mean no disrespect to anyone.. but some facts are hard to ignore.. and it gives me no pleasure to say that about my country.. but unfortunately its true..

Muslims and Christians in Lebanon. they have wronged the country.. whether Shiite , Sunni , Durz , Catholics , Orthodox…and everyone else .. with all do respect from what im reading over the internet and watching on TV .. its ridiculous..

you want a country act like it.. don’t just talk and talk and talk about it.. don’t follow.. LEAD… this mentality of following this guy or this party its disturbing.. God gave u a brain and the power to know right from wrong… use it..

and stop blaming this country and that country for your misfortune.. the situation was caused by the Lebanese themselves.. and think about how to solve the problem in a civilized way rather than killing each other or cussing each other on Tv..

and someone called us “les petits gents”.. i wish you don’t generalize lol.. :)
concerning the article some is true some is not, in my personal opinion that is, im not political analyst i just try to follow logic..but one thing for sure its the people in a country that makes it rise or fall

It is great to see wiseguys on this thread wanting to determine the fate and future of all the lebanese and israli citizens that have nothing to do with politics, power, love of blood and war. Another war will just bring us death, terror, fear, devestation and misery. So I would urge all to stop encouraging war and try to find possible solutions to end this situation. No one will benefit from another war, certainly not the people who will have to pay for it in blood. So for all of you living in the US Iran Europe or wherever the hell you are living, I wish it was your countries that is getting destroyed so you get a some taste of what we are living…

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Interesting point… not sure I agree 100%, but that’s OK. Everyone is allowed their own opinion, right? I’ll keep checking back to see if anyone else agrees or not. Thanks!

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Victor says:

Well, considering Hezbollah is indiscriminately targeting Israeli civilians and wants to simply kill of the Jews Israel should employ extreme violence and pragmatic approach against both Hezbollah and Lebanese civilians. The best way is to employ Roman tactics of pacare ( pacification) and vestatio (devastation) which includes killing off or driving away population, destroying crops and infrastructure to make survival of the rest impossible in those areas. Also, driving away all Lebanese population and annexation of depopulated areas would be a good thing to do to this permanent cancer situation. In short make a desert and call it peace.

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