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Report: Ceasefire to Begin in a Few Hours

Violence expected to continue until the last possible legal second

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Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi(CSM)

From Ha’aretz:

5:24 P.M. Senior Israeli officials with knowledge of ongoing talks geared at reaching a cease-fire with Hamas will go into effect by Tuesday evening, adding that they hoped that the deal’s last points will be finalized in a meeting between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, due to take place at 10 P.M.

The officials added that the deal would not be a written agreement, and that no papers will be signed. “There will be understandings that will center on the cessation of Gaza rocket fire and the end of IAF strikes,” the officials said, adding that “discussions with the Egyptians on other issues like border crossings and arms smuggling will take place down the line”

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PhillipNagle says:

Stupid! The only reason Hamas ever agrees to a cease fire is because they are getting their ass kicked and they need time to rearm. Further, the idea that the agreement is not in writing makes it even more worthless than usual.

Wonderful step to re-assess what we are doing. In one photo from Haaretz, I saw a Hamas fighter with an Apple iPad. My simple judgement: someone who uses an iPad is someone who has other interests than destroying Israel. In 1st world war, in a single battle at Verdun, 700,000 people died stupidly to advance or retreat about 20 miles for two years. The soldiers were French and German, two of the greatest civilizations of the Western Culture . This happened just less than 100 years ago- makes the few thousands people dead in the Gaza Israel conflict appear insignificant. Israel is not able to sustain a war like the 1st world war, because its entire population will be wiped out. Thanks Gd twitter and Internet exists. Thanks Gd United States exists. And thanks Gd we have in Israel a leadership who has a kopf to decide when to make war or peace in Israel. Every soldier knows how to pray an put tefillin. This is why we exist for 5,000 years.

Hudna: A temporary truce given to prepare for the next battle.
I realize Israel has to bend to the pressure of an American President and International community that wish Israel and Jews ill.
This will accomplish nothing accept insure another round of fightig. And it will certainly be a wider, bloodier war.

Cease fire…then what?

LtcHoward says:

ISRAEL IS AT WAR.

It must be emphasized to the world and to all Israelis that Israel is at war and that Israel is fighting for its very survival.

Although the Iron Dome anti-rocket shield has been successful in largely protecting the major Israeli cities, there have already been tragic casualties and regrettably more are likely if hostilities continue . The high cost of Iron Dome ($40,000 per missile?) and it’s limited number make it a ineffective weapon against low-cost missile saturated attack. Also, if a sufficient quantity of Iron Dome missiles are not held in reserve ,then later when long-range missiles are fired against Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, etc., they will go unchallenged. Iron Dome is not an effective long-range strategy. Defense rarely is an effective long-range strategy.

THE MOST IMMEDIATE THREAT TO ISRAEL’S SURVIVAL is a nuclear armed Iran. (The recent attack on Israel by Iranian proxy Hamas should disabuse anyone who hopes for the “rationality” of the Islamists.) Thus, Israel must maintain a capability to attack Iran’s nuclear program if and when it deems it to be in Israel’s interest to do so. Even a few years delay in Iran’s nuclear progress might change the situation radically in the Middle East .To have as free a hand as possible ,interference from Hamas, Hezbollah or any other pro-Iranian entity must be squelched..

A 2ND IMPORTANT OBJECTIVE is to persuade Hezbollah that any attack on Israel (including kidnappings, over the border raids, explosive tunnels, missile and rocket assaults, etc. )would exact a catastrophic price from Hezbollah and from the Lebanese infrastructure. The expected retaliation should be so severe that the clear message to Hezbollah is: “don’t even think of it”. This will free Israel’s hands for action against Iran and for action against Hamas.

A 3RD IMPORTANT OBJECTIVE is to stop the current Hamas’ missile attacks and to make sure that Hamas never again attacks Israel (through rockets and missiles, raids, kidnappings, explosive tunnels, etc.)

Anything less than accomplishing the 3 objectives identified above) is an Israeli defeat.

Israel has a limited time window. The US administration is already talking about slowing down Israel’s resupply chain. The US administration has already contacted Israel to “warn” Israel against conducting a ground offensive. (Interestingly, certain military analysts believe that a ground offensive is the only way of halting current and future missile attacks against Israel.) Soon the world will demand an end to Israel’s military efforts. Whatever Israel does not accomplish during this period of time will remain a sword hanging over Israel’s head which will be executed in the future.

Israel must recognize and clearly explain to the United States and to the rest of the world that in future conflicts, the terrorists will continue accumulating more effective and lethal weapons to employ against Israel (as well as against the United States and against the rest of the world). Israel must therefore endeavor to resist calls for a cease-fire until such time as Hamas, in conjunction with the Egyptians, undertake to cease their aggression.

There must be a clear understanding (by Israel, by Hamas, by Hezbollah, by the United States, by England, and by the rest of the world) that any breach would result in harsh “disproportionate” Israeli responses including the targeted killings of those responsible for initiating attacks. In the absence of such an agreement an enforced cease fire will be perceived as a major victory for Hamas and Israel’s citizens will simply return to the life of terror they endured since the first Kassams were launched a decade ago.

Many of Israel’s problems are self-imposed.It must be emphasized that Israel, by taking her usual“measured approach” is guaranteeing that the next round of assault by Israel’s enemies will be more furious. This “measured” approach also substantially increases the probability of future attacks..

Israelis pride themselves on being restrained and utilizing “proportional response”; being the most humane army in the world; precisely targeted retaliation; minimizing civilian casualties of the enemy. These are are all losing strategies. Israel gets no credit for its high moral standing. Rather, this is used against them in terms of Israel’s enemies placing rocket launchers in civilian areas, etc. They then employ pictures and articles describing casualties, especially women and children and invoke claims of a “humanitarian crisis” to pressure the world to pressure Israel for a stand down.

Israel should announce that it’s retaliation/prevention policy is “ strictly proportional”. Just keep announcing it and then the media will repeat it.

The PUBLIC logic is simple. You are obligating yourself to do enough but no more (AND NO LESS) than is necessary. And, If Hamas does not stop its attacks, then by definition, you have not exercised sufficient force. Therefore, under the doctrine of “proportionality” Israel must increase the intensity of the Israeli attacks until Hamas ceases its offensive actions.

Other Israeli self-limiting attitudes and actions include:

Recently, the IDF bragged that it aborted a mission attacking an Hamas missile launcher site since the pilot saw children playing in the vicinity of the rocket launcher (target). This missile was not attacked and later was fired against Israel. Had any Israelis and killed or injured by that missile, their blood would be on the hands of the Israeli pilot who did not complete the mission ,his IDF command and Israeli government that does not give highest priority to preserving the lives of their citizens. Sacrificing Israeli civilians and/or Israeli military in order to brag about how humane Israelis are, is criminal.

Hamas is no longer a terrorist faction. It is in every respect an independent state the majority of whose citizens enthusiastically support the terrorist initiatives and missile launches initiated by its leaders committed to in Israel’s annihilation.

It’s been publicized that 80 large trailer trucks of supplies or trucked into Gaza in one day. Also the electrical grid is still functioning supplying electricity to Gaza. If Israel wants to survive this is insanity, the various grids such as electrical, water, sewage, etc. should be immediately cut.

The missile fire from Gaza to Israel is applauded by the inhabitants. Should an Israeli school be struck and students injured or killed candies would be given out in celebration. The inhabitants of Gaza are complicit. They enthusiastically elected Hamas and serve as human shields. The inhabitants of Gaza should be made to feel the same shock and terror as the citizens of Israel. An Egyptian military associate said that it was incongruous to see the inhabitants of southern Israel in shelters and the inhabitants of Gaza nonchalantly shopping in the malls.

Bargaining theory is useful. In poker one objective is to force your opponent to abandon the game (or to lose all of his assets to you.). Gradual escalation sucks both you and him in deeper. Usually deeper then you have to go, if stead of escalating gradually, you escalate dramatically. In poker you would say “ I see your dollar and I raise you 10,000.” Another analogy is to imagine exactly how a Mafia family under siege facing the same circumstances would counter and neutralize their enemies. (“He puts one of my guys in the hospital; I put 2 of his guys in the morgue.”….) Then act as they would have acted had they faced this hostile Islamic world which is conspiring for their destruction.

If Israel does not start immediately Israel will be regarded as a pompous weakling and deterrence will have failed forever.

Israel must raise the price so high that the message is clear to Hamas: “don’t even think about firing more missiles since our “proportionate response” would be immediate, fierce and very costly to you and to the population that you represent. For a specific example, announce that you have a list of 300 (or 500, or?) residential buildings and publicize your list.( This constitutes “ fair warning” having been given to the inhabitants of these buildings.} Then announce that for each incoming missile you’re going to destroy one of these buildings ….and if the Hamas attack continues, Israel must go ahead with these attacks. The residents of all 300 (or the number you choose) buildings. will feel the panic. Having given adequate warning, Israel must go ahead with these attacks.

Simultaneously, Israel should begin systematically destroying obvious and essential Gaza infrastructure. Examples include bridges over bodies of water. Key intersections. Shopping malls. Electrical and water grids.Also commercial properties and manufacturing properties should be on the target list and destroyed.

Electricity from Israel should be cut off.

Food should be blockaded and Israel’s new policy should be that for every missile over certain class that Hamas and its allies turns over to Israel, Israel will let one truckload of food in.

IN THE SHORT RUN THIS APPROACH MIGHT INCREASE PALESTINIAN CASUALTIES. …….IN THE LONG RUN IT WILL REDUCE PALESTINIAN CASUALTIES SINCE IT WILL END THE ATTACKS SOONER AND PREVENT FUTURE ATTACKS.

2000

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Report: Ceasefire to Begin in a Few Hours

Violence expected to continue until the last possible legal second

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