Though the man himself has ruled it out, New York explores the implications of a Michael Bloomberg candidacy, whose likelihood “is just as great as, if not greater than, it was when he considered taking the plunge in 2008.” If the fiscally conservative, socially liberal Democrat-turned-Republican-turned-independent three-term mayor of New York City makes himself the first major Jewish presidential candidate, he could siphon votes from President Obama and hand the election to the Republican nominee, even (perhaps especially) if said nominee is a certain former Alaska governor. “The White House has made a gaudy show of sucking up to the mayor,” reports John Heilemann, “to keep him on the sidelines in 2012, where he and his billions would pose no danger of redrawing the electoral map in unpredictable and perilous ways.”

Bloomberg has been spending the midterm season traveling the country endorsing a bipartisan roster of smart, moderate, technocratic candidates (Republican Meg Whitman for California governor; Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colorado) for re-election; independent former Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee for Rhode Island governor). Bloomberg probably won’t run unless he is truly viable, and he almost certainly won’t be truly viable unless, primarily, the economy continues to slip, further weakening Obama; and, secondarily, Sarah Palin emerges as the GOP front-runner.

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