Four days into the war, the Israelis have established total air superiority over western Iran (including the capital, Tehran), decapitated much of the regime’s military and internal security leadership, heavily damaged Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, and eliminated perhaps a dozen of its top nuclear scientists. Iran has retaliated with ballistic missiles, some of which have penetrated Israeli air defenses and struck Israeli population centers, the Israeli Air Force is slowly but surely degrading Iran’s capacity to respond. On Monday, IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari announced that Israel had destroyed one-third of Iran’s available surface-to-surface missile launchers in a series of raids the previous night—a data point that, if it’s even remotely close to accurate, would suggest a significant bottleneck in Iran’s ability to maintain the tempo of its strikes that is only likely to worsen as the war progresses.

It is too soon to declare total victory. Estimates of Iran’s ballistic-missile capabilities...